US officials have announced a plan for the future of the two-decade US military presence in Iraq, with a US-led coalition in the country to fight ISIL set to wind down by the end of 2025. However, they have left the door open to a prolonged military presence, with plans for a “transition” rather than a “withdrawal”. The future of US troops in Iraq remains uncertain, with officials stressing that the move will involve two phases, expected to end by 2026.
The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of the global “war on terror”, with a peak of 170,000 troops deployed by 2007. Although most US forces were withdrawn by 2011, they were redeployed in 2014 to combat ISIL in Iraq and Syria. The Biden administration recently ended a US “combat mission” in Iraq, shifting about 2,500 troops to an advisory role. Talks about further winding down troops began in January, involving Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and top-ranking officials.
The continued presence of US troops in Iraq has faced opposition from influential segments of the government, with bases housing US soldiers coming under attack by Iran-aligned militias. These attacks have reduced in frequency since Israel’s war in Gaza in October 2023. The future of US-Iraq defence ties is expected to shift towards an expanded bilateral security relationship, but specifics remain unclear. The outcome of these discussions will have significant implications for the security and stability of the region.
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