Former US military intelligence analyst, Harrison Mann, who recently quit the military over US support for Israel’s war in Gaza, has warned that Israel is risking going to war against Hezbollah for political reasons. Mann believes that such a war would result in mass civilian deaths in Lebanon and Israel, as well as pulling the US into a regional conflict.
Despite the IDF announcing that planning for a Lebanon offensive had been completed, US officials have privately stated that Netanyahu’s government is aware of the dangers of war against Hezbollah and is not actively seeking a fight. However, Mann argues that there is a high risk of Israel engaging in a ruinous war in Lebanon due to internal political pressures and Netanyahu’s need to maintain power.
Mann predicts that an Israeli offensive in Lebanon would result in widespread destruction in Israel, as well as high casualties in a ground offensive into southern Lebanon. He believes that Hezbollah would retaliate with mass rocket attacks, potentially overwhelming Israel’s air defenses and causing unprecedented destruction in the country.
In response to a potential conflict, Mann expects the Biden administration to avoid direct clashes with Iran, but the risk of escalation would still be significant. He, however, trusts the administration not to engage in actions that would lead to further escalation.
Overall, Mann believes that a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be disastrous for both sides, with catastrophic consequences for civilians and the potential to draw the US into a wider regional conflict.
Source
Photo credit amp.theguardian.com